"Rebuilding Fort NH" - Ana Marie Cox: "Can NH Revive McCain?"

Ana Marie Cox of Time.com's Swampland blog posted this piece -

"Can New Hampshire Revive McCain?" - on Wednesday, September 12. Here are some key excerpts:

Senator John McCain arrives in Portsmouth, N.H., Wednesday night to begin the second leg of what he has dubbed his "No Surrender Tour," a traveling Iraq war and campaign pep rally engineered to coincide with the congressional testimony of Gen. David Petraeus and its attendant media frenzy. Given the public's continuing frustration with the war and McCain's significant stumbles earlier this year, the presidential candidate's counterintuitive approach may seem like a risky strategy, but it now has staffers talking "comeback." A recent uptick in national polls and a strong performance in last week's New Hampshire debate has the campaign hopeful that the Senator's decision to, as an internal memo framed it, "own the surge" will reinvigorate McCain's chances among the Granite State's notoriously skeptical voters...

After the campaign imploded in the spring, with McCain's coffers all but dry and his bloated operation scaled back, the remaining staffers had always hoped to "rebuild Fort New Hampshire," the site of McCain's upset triumph in the 2000 primaries. They just didn't suspect the structure's foundations would be something as shaky as the war. Until recently, the thinking was, as one adviser put it, "what immigration is for McCain in Iowa, the war is for him in New Hampshire." Which is to say, it was killing him. And just as McCain would often bring up his immigration reform proposal in Iowa town halls whether someone asked about it or not, the candidate was equally irrepressible — even glib — about bringing up the war unprompted in New Hampshire. ("Thanks for the question, you little jerk," McCain told a student a Concord high school student who asked about his age last week. "You're drafted.")

But campaign advisers say New Englanders are starting to respond to McCain's steadfastness on Iraq, even if they don't agree with his policies. They point to the focus group of New Hampshire Republicans assembled by Frank Luntz to watch last week's debate; McCain's numbers spiked the highest when he told the audience that he empathized with their "frustration" and "anger" over the situation in Iraq, and that he wants to bring the troops home as well...

Voters' willingness to see past their differences with McCain on the war may also have to do with McCain's carefully calibrated moves to distinguish between his support for the war and his support — or lack of it — for the Bush Administration. He's long emphasized, as he made a point of doing during the Petraeus hearing, that he was one of primary critics of the Administration's handling of Iraq. But when he emphasized it as a point of distinction just prior to the New Hampshire debate — saying that his skepticism about Bush's strategy predated that of even the Democratic candidates — the message finally resonated, says senior aide Mark Salter.

Of course, it's easy to speculate about McCain's surge now, but assessing his improvement on the ground is as difficult to do as in Iraq... And McCain's ability to sell his stance on the war as a principled stand may not matter if he doesn't have enough money to get his message across...

You can read the full text of the article here. You can contact Campaignia at publisher@campaignia.org.

Text of McCain's fundraising e-mail in the aftermath of 9/5 UNH debate, under the signature of Rick Davis

Below is the text of the fundraising e-mail, sent out under the signature of campaign manager Rick Davis on Thursday, September 6, in the aftermath of the previous day's debate at the University of New Hampshire.

This differs from other fundraising e-mails in two main respects. One is the fact that it is structured in the form of a memo from the campaign manager. While some previous e-mails had been sent out under the campaign manager's signatures- most, if not all, previous e-mails had been framed as ostensibly personal letters, with the first name of the recipient prominently noted in the salutation. The second difference is that it also has cool graphics and quotes from New Hampshire voters, about Senator McCain's performance during the debate.

Davis's text is italicized.

To: All McCain Supporters
From: Rick Davis, Campaign Manager
Re: Last Night's Debate

I hope you had a chance to watch last night's New Hampshire GOP Debate - it was a perfect example of why John McCain is the only candidate ready to be Commander-in-Chief from day one. And post-debate focus groups show the voters agree.

"I think John McCain sounded the most presidential, even the other candidates were quoting John McCain during their responses."

"I think McCain just has the experience and it came through in his answers."

"[H]e was very passionate about being a leader. And that's what we need in this country: a leader who's not afraid to do what he says."

"He exhibits leadership a lot better than other candidates seem to ... He was direct. He spoke forcefully in support for the war in Iraq."

Fox News' "Hannity & Colmes," 9/5/07

Bottom line: This campaign is in your hands. We need your help to turn last night's momentum into the votes needed to make John McCain our next president. It's clear that this isn't a time for spin or slick, made-for-TV responses. It's time for serious leadership and straight talk. At every turn last night, John McCain stood up with straight talk and a willingness to tackle our nation's challenges head-on.
I'm proud that John McCain is about solutions, not sound bites. Last night's
debate showed why John McCain is ready to be Commander-in-Chief from day one and win the war against Islamic extremists.

At last night's debate, voters in New Hampshire and around the country saw the John McCain we know and support - now it's our turn to stand up and make sure every voter gets to know John McCain before they cast their ballot. With the primaries getting closer every day, it's clear we need to have the resources necessary to help John McCain win right now. In a competitive campaign such as this one, we need every dollar possible to reach out to voters, spread John McCain's message and build our organization to get voters to the polls on Election Day.

As you saw from last night's debate, John McCain is winning over new supporters every day - and with your immediate contribution we can turn those new supporters into votes. He's been out on the road holding town hall meetings and talking with voters about the issues that matter to them in this campaign, and voters are responding to his leadership, experience and straight talk. I hope you'll join me in keeping last night's momentum going.

Paid for by John McCain 2008 · www.JohnMcCain.com

You can contact Campaignia at publisher@campaignia.org.

Post-UNH debate analysis: DaveG of Race42008 writes this post: "Is a McCain comeback still possible?"

Here is an extended post written by DaveG of Race42008.com, on Senator McCain's campaign as a whole, in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday's debate at UNH:

Is A McCain Comeback Still Possible?

I know that I say this after every debate of the GOP field, but the reaction of the Granite State crowd surveyed by Frank Luntz was compelling. As seen post-debate on Fox News, a room full of New Hampshire Republicans began the night with nary a McCainiac in their ranks, and ended the night stopping just short of collectively shouting, “Go, John, Go!” The same crowd, incidentally, expressed much disappointment with national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani. What gives?

This development may be less mysterious than it initially seems. Rudy has a knack for disappointing debate performances in a multi-candidate field, probably because his good-humored persona doesn’t dominate the room. Rudy’s more like a wry New Yorker, grinning and thinking of the next one-liner when a question is posed to him. This would probably be highly effective in a two-person debate, but not when every single-digit type is pounding their fist and puffing out their chest, trying to look presidential. Further, McCain is far more conservative than most conservatives give the man credit for, and upon hearing his actual views, and not the views that many Republicans have grafted onto him ever since the South Carolina primary in 2000, it is understandable that conservatives would be willing to give the man a second look. And while this may seem obvious to political junkies like us, folks who don’t spend every waking second refreshing R4′08, i.e., the bulk of Americans, still have an
unrealistic caricature of McCain embedded in their political psyche that will only be removed with greater exposure to the actual Arizona senator. But McCain is almost bankrupt, and without a functioning campaign, it’s difficult to see how he hangs on until most voters start paying attention this winter.

If McCain does decide to go for broke and hope that disaffected conservatives will return to the real McCain at the eleventh hour, here’s what he should do. First, McCain should spend the next four months visiting every nook and cranny of New Hampshire, a northern state that is more secular than religious, more Roman Catholic and Mainline Protestant than Evangelical, more fiscally conservative than not, and that has an affinity for mavericks of all stripes. If McCain can reintroduce himself to New Hampshire voters in a favorable light, he has a chance of scoring a major upset in the nation’s first primary. That will mean that after New Hampshire, Romney, the likely winner of Iowa, and McCain would each have a contest under their respective belts, while Rudy and Thompson would have no such victories. McCain’s next step would be to win Michigan, a Midwestern state that responds well to Republicans like McCain, with his understated cultural conservatism and domestic pragmatism. A one-two-punch against the rest of the field in New Hampshire and Michigan could do major damage to one or more of the frontrunners. Romney will probably snag LDS-heavy Wyoming and Nevada, but if McCain can build up enough momentum, he may be able to win South Carolina, the supposed Thompson firewall, or Florida, Rudy’s firewall. That could propel McCain into Super Duper Tuesday, where he could do very well in states like California and Illinois. And all this from a man who is politically as good as dead.

What we politicos have to remember is that the average voter remains disengaged in this race. Romney is still the guy that looks like Ward Cleaver. Rudy is still America’s Mayor. McCain is still a Democrat with an “R” next to his name. And so on. Those perceptions won’t change until the bulk of America starts paying attention. As Frank Luntz demonstrated tonight, when voters do tune in, preconceived notions can change overnight. That gives McCain one more reason to stay in the game for at least a little while longer.

by DaveG @ 11:02 pm. Filed under John McCain

You can read the full text of the original article here. You can contact Campaignia at publisher@campaignia.org.